2026 A-10 Conference Tournament Predictions

The A-10 is in full throttle this season, and I expect this conference tournament to have some unexpected twists and turns. Saint Louis is a clear favorite to win, as they are analytically favored, and there is a good reason for that. I thought it would be a runaway conference, but George Mason recently beat #25-ranked Saint Louis in a blowout on Saturday, March 7th. That leaves some questions in the air about whether Saint Louis will make the field of play; however, CBS Sports still projects them as the #10 seed in their latest bracketology, with the #2 seed in the A-10 tourney being VCU, which is currently listed in the Last Four In. The conference starts on March 10th at 11:30 AM with a #12 vs. #13-seeded matchup.

First Round #12 La Salle Explorers vs #13 St. Bonaventure Bonnies

• Winner: #13 St. Bonaventure Bonnies
• Projected Score: St. Bonaventure 80 vs La Salle 77
• Line: SBU -5.5 Total: 144.5
• La Salle did win the series this year against the Bonnies, defeating them in mid-January at home by a score of 78-74. However, I think the Bonnies' offensive power will be too strong for La Salle to handle. St. Bonaventure as a team is 4th in the A-10 in offensive efficiency, while La Salle is toward the bottom of the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I further think the guard and center of play for the Bonnies are in a different class than La Salle's. Watch out for PG Darryl Simmons II and C Frank Mitchell for Saint Bonaventure.

#11 Richmond Spiders vs #14 Loyola Chicago Ramblers

• Winner: #11 Richmond Spiders
• Projected Score: Richmond Spiders 81 vs 74 Loyola Chicago Ramblers
• Line: -5.5 Total: 143.5
• Richmond and Loyola Chicago enter the tournament both a little shaky. Loyola did win the only matchup between them this season. The Ramblers won by a score of 69-66 at home. Look out for Senior guard AJ Lopez in this matchup; he had 23 in their first matchup. Richmond is a very good 3P shooting team that shot 37.5% on the season.

Second Round

#8 Fordham Rams vs #9 George Washington Revolutionaries

• Winner: #9 George Washington Revolutionaries
• Projected Score: Fordham Rams 74 vs George Washington Revolutionaries 78
• Line: GW -5.5 Total: 140.5
• GW did lose to Fordham at home by a big margin, but I think the Revolutionaries' offense will rally. Watch out for Junior guard Trey Autry, who is averaging 10.7 a game and arguably the best player in the conference, being Rafael Castro. GW takes a lot of 3s and makes a lot of 3s. They shot 35.4% from 3-point range, which ranks 6th in the A-10.

#5 George Mason Patriots vs #13 St. Bonaventure Bonnies

• Winner: #5 George Mason Patriots
• Projected Score: George Mason Patriots 81 vs 78 St. Bonaventure Bonnies
• This will be a very close game in my opinion. The Patriots won by a fair margin against the Bonnies in late February. I think George Mason is just too good, especially coming off a massive upset win against Saint Louis. Kory Mincy is an excellent combo guard who is shooting 39% from 3-point range. The Patriots advance to face #4 Dayton.

#7 Duquesne Dukes vs #10 Rhode Island Rams

• Winner: Duquesne Dukes 73 vs 71 Rhode Island Rams
• Projected Score: Duquesne Dukes vs Rhode Island Rams
• Line: DUQ -1.5 Total: 139.5
• Duquesne takes a lot of 3s; they rank 77th in 3p rate nationally. Rhode Island ranks 3rd in the conference in defensive efficiency, while it ranks 9th. One thing to watch out for is that Duquesne turns the ball over more than they should, and the Rams are actually 7th in the entire country in turnover rate on defense. If Duquesne doesn’t take care of the ball, the Rams will run them out of the gym. However, I think the Dukes 3p shooting, fast pace, and guard play from Tarence Guinyard will lead them to victory against the Rams. Where they will play #2 VCU.

#6 Davidson Wildcats vs #11 Richmond Spiders

• Winner: #6 Davidson Wildcats
• Projected Score: Davidson Wildcats 81 vs 74 Richmond Spiders
• Davidson won the series 2-0 against the Richmond Spiders this season. I think that Richmond is a very good team, and they could have made a run in the A-10, but Davidson is a tough draw. I could see Richmond getting their revenge after getting swept, but I think Davidson is too good. Davidson is led by sharpshooting guards Robert Blums and Parker Friedrichsen, who both shoot over 41% from 3. Davidson advances to play #3 Saint Joseph’s in the quarterfinals

Quartefinals

#1 Saint Louis Billikens vs #9 George Washington Revolutionaries

• Winner: #1 Saint Louis Billikens
• Projected Score: Saint Louis Billikens 84 vs 79 George Washington Revolutionaries
• Saint Louis and GW play the only difference very similarly; the only difference is that Saint Louis is just better at it. George Washington played on the road against Saint Louis and lost by only 3. That scares me when I make this pick. However, I will trust head coach Josh Schertz, forward Robbie Avila, guard Trey Green, and sophomore guard Ishan Sharma to get it done when it counts.

#4 Dayton Flyers vs #5 George Mason Patriots

• Winner: #4 Dayton Flyers
• Projected Score: Dayton Flyers 77 vs 73 George Mason Patriots Dayton plays suffocating defense and forces a ton of turnovers. Look out for Javon Bennett and a 7-footer, Amael L'Etang. Dayton did win the matchup against George Mason by a score of 82-67 in mid-February. For those reasons, I think Dayton advances to the semifinals and faces the #1 seed, Saint Louis.

#2 VCU Rams vs #7 Duquesne Dukes

• Winner: #2 VCU Rams
• Projected Score: VCU Rams 83 vs 73 Duquesne Dukes
• VCU has been playing great ball as of late and beat Duquesne by 13 earlier in the season. Look out for Lazar Djokovic in this matchup. VCU is a very good 3-point shooting team and draws a ton of fouls. The Dukes foul a ton for those reasons, I think VCU wins by a fair margin using their 3-point and free-throw attack. VCU will await the winner of Saint Joseph’s and Davidson.

#3 Saint Joseph’s Hawks vs #4 Davidson Wildcats

• Winner: #3 Saint Joseph’s Hawks
• Projected Score: Saint Joseph’s Hawks 73 vs 72 Davidson Wildcats This game is a massive toss-up to me. Both teams take a ton of threes; however, Saint Joseph’s is really bad behind the 3-point line, shooting a measly 30.5%, which ranks 332nd in the country. The reason I give the edge to the Hawks is that they play much better defense compared to Davidson. Despite the Hawks shooting poorly, they also force other teams to shoot poorly, with a 31.6% 3-point percentage against them this season. The series was 1-1 this season, but I think the Hawks' defense gets them to the semis.

Semifinals

#1 Saint Louis Billikens vs #4 Dayton Flyers

• Winner: #1 Saint Louis Billikens
• Projected Score: Saint Louis Billikens 78 vs 76 Dayton Flyers
• The series is split 1-1 between Saint Louis and Dayton. However, Saint Louis has the better win differential in the series. Dayton is gonna need another monster performance from Amael L'Etang in order to beat Saint Louis again. I think Saint Louis is the slightly better team, and they will barely get by to advance to the championship.

#2 VCU Rams vs #3 Saint Joseph’s Hawks

• Winner: #2 VCU Rams
• Projected Score: VCU Rams 77 vs 72 Saint Joseph’s Hawks
• VCU will take advantage of Saint Joseph’s in this game, especially with the Hawks' very bad 3-point shooting. VCU defeated the Hawks at home in mid-January by 7.

Championships

#1 Saint Louis Billikens vs #2 VCU Rams

• Winner: #2 VCU Rams
• Projected Score: Saint Louis Billikens 79 vs 81 VCU Rams
• VCU despite losing both games to the Saint Louis Billikens in the series will finally get their revenge where it matters most and beat the Billikens in a tough competitive game. Brandon Jennings and Lazar Djokovic get it done when it counts, securing the auto-bid. I still believe Saint Louis would make the field of play despite the loss to VCU. The Rams most likely secure a 9-10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This bracket was more chalk than I would have liked; however, there were some tossups where I just went with my gut. The Dayton vs Saint Joseph’s game could easily go either way, and I wouldn’t be surprised.