2026 First Round Mountain West Tournament Predictions

#8 UNLV Rebels vs #9 Wyoming Cowboys

• Winner: #8 UNLV Rebels
• Projected Score: UNLV Rebels 85 vs Wyoming Cowboys 83
• Line: UNLV -3.5 Total: 153.5
• Wyoming is the better team analytically, has the better overall record, and even beat UNLV 98-66 at home in early January. However, UNLV is playing the best basketball they have all season. They are coming off wins against Nevada, Utah St, and only lost on the road by 3 against SDSU. I believe they are primed to win at least one game this season. Dre Gibbs-Lawhorn is also averaging over 20 points the last month. For UNLV to win, he will have to score over 20 points, which I think he will. UNLV advances to play Utah St who they swept earlier in the year.

#5 Nevada Wolf Pack vs #12 Air Force Falcons

• Winner: #5 Nevada Wolf Pack
• Projected Score: Nevada Wolf Pack 87 vs Air Force Falcons 67
• Line: NEV -20.5 Total: 141.5
• Air Force is the worst team in the conference and arguably the worst team in the entire country. I don’t think this team has a chance to win. Nevada moves on to play #4 Grand Canyon.

#7 Colorado St Rams vs #10 Fresno St Bulldogs

• Winner: #7 Colorado St Rams
• Projected Score: Colorado St Rams 83 vs 77 Fresno St Bulldogs
• Line: CSU -7.5 Total: 144.5
• Colorado St is an elite 3-point shooting team, and they take a ton of 3s. They also play at an extremely slow tempo, which can mess up opponents' timing. I think the Rams simply shoot the Bulldogs out of the arena. Colorado St is also extremely hot coming into the tournament. The Rams will face SDSU in the next round.

#6 Boise St Broncos vs #11 San Jose St Spartans

• Winner: #6 Boise St Broncos
• Projected Score: Boise St Broncos 94 vs 79 San Jose Spartans
• Line: BOIS -14.5 Total: 145.5
• Boise St has had amazing offensive production as of late; however, their defense is still a significant weakness. Eventually, that will bite the Broncos, but today isn’t that day. The Spartans have one of the worst defenses in the country.