Diamond Prospects LogoDiamond Prospects
Back to Articles
Predicting the AL 2026 Gold Glove Winners
MLB
October 24, 2026

Predicting the AL 2026 Gold Glove Winners

The 2026 American League Gold Glove Awards feature several competitive races, with advanced defensive statistics playing a major role in determining the most deserving winners. This analysis examines each position using metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Outs Above Average (OAA), Fielding Run Value (FRV), and traditional fielding statistics. While some races have clear favorites, others require a closer look at defensive consistency, positional versatility, and overall impact.

Pitcher:

  • Tanner Bibee- Cleveland Guardians
  • Jacob deGrom- Texas Rangers
  • José Soriano- Los Angeles Angels/Toronto Blue Jays

Tanner Bibee had +5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2026. Jacob deGrom had +2 Defensive Runs Saved. José Soriano had +3 DRS. Ben Clemens put out a solid article on his Gold Glove picks on FanGraphs. He used metrics that measure how well a pitcher controls the running game. I agree with the statement that “Keeping runners stationary doesn’t show up in highlights, but given how rarely pitchers actually field their position, it struck me as the correct skill to reward here” (Clemens,2026). I will be relying mainly on Net Bases Prevented on Statcast. Bibee had +9 Net Bases Prevented. Statcast defines this as “a sum of advances prevented and outs added assigned to the pitcher” (Statcast). That places Bibee in a three-way tie for first place in that category, along with two other GG finalists, Shota Imanaga and Michael McGreevy. deGrom had +1 Net Bases Prevented, and Soriano had +7. However, advanced metrics aren’t everything. To me, fielding percentage still matters. Since pitchers can’t really be measured for OAA (Outs Above Average), I think FP matters, aside from Defensive Runs Saved. Soriano and deGrom had 0 errors this season while Bibee had 3, and I don’t know; I feel that nothing is more backbreaking than a pitcher making a throwing or fielding error. Despite the advanced metrics, I'd pick José Soriano of the Toronto Blue Jays. Soriano was high up in every metric and not far from Bibee, and also had 0 errors while doing it. I really don’t know, though; I think it is only between Bibee and Soriano. I can confidently say deGrom won't win it. None of these players have won a Gold Glove. Ultimately, I think José Soriano will win his first Gold Glove and become the first pitcher to bring one back to Toronto since José Berríos in 2023. I guess that the José’s in royal blue are just really good at flashing the leather.

Winner: José Soriano- Toronto Blue Jays (would be his first)

Catcher:

  • Dillon Dingler- Detroit Tigers
  • Brandon Valenzuela- Toronto Blue Jays
  • Austin Wells- New York Yankees

If we go off our Catcher Defense score on Diamond Prospects, Dillon Dingler would win pretty comfortably. Dingler had +15 DRS, +11 Blocks Above Average, +9 Framing Runs, and +5 Caught Stealing Above Average, which is below Valenzuela, but Dingler is just a little higher pretty much in every category. Brandon Valenzuela definitely didn’t make this a runaway. He had +8 CS Above Average (higher than Dingler) and +8 Framing Runs, which is just shy of Dingler. Valenzuela's only weakness is Blocks Above Average, which comes in at -3. Austin Wells put together a decent campaign. He had +9 Blocks Above Average and +7 Framing Runs. The only problem was that he can’t throw down very well. His pop time is well below average, and his arm strength is, too. He had -3 CS Above Average. So, while he had a good year behind the dish, I would argue that in the ABS era, throwing and blocking are more valuable than framing. I think that Patrick Bailey and Adley Rutschman should’ve been finalists for the award over Austin Wells. Rutschman was arguably the best all-around fielding catcher behind Dingler. However, I am pretty confident that Dillon Dingler will win his second Gold Glove, and his 2nd in a row.

Winner: Dillon Dingler- Detroit Tigers (would be his second)

First Base:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- Toronto Blue Jays
  • Christian Walker- Houston Astros
  • Vinnie Pasquantino- Kansas City Royals

Vlad Guerrero Jr. had +4 OAA and +10 DRS in 2026. Another cool stat that Savant now has is first-base receiving. This is on an above-average scale and measures how well they pick and stretch. Guerrero finished with +1, which you can’t really complain about, and tied with Christian Walker in that category. Walker also had +3 OAA and +3 DRS. Pasquantino also ended with +1. “The Pasquatch” had +1 OAA and +7 DRS. I think Guerrero Jr. had the lowest fielding percentage, but by a hair, I am still gonna pick Vlad to win his 2nd Gold Glove. This would be his 2nd Gold Glove. He has not won one since the 2022 season. Christian Walker has won 3, and Paquantino will have to keep searching for that first vein of gold.

Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.- Toronto Blue Jays (would be his second)

Second Base:

  • Michael Massey- Kansas City Royals
  • Chase Meidroth- Chicago White Sox
  • Cole Young- Seattle Mariners

This might be the hardest one to decide yet. Meidroth had 0 DRS, +9 OAA, and +10 Fielding Run Value. He also had 8 errors in 2026, for a .986 fielding percentage. Cole Young had +16 DRS, -5 OAA, and -4 Fielding Run Value. Along with 6 errors for a .990 fielding percentage. Michael Massey had +5 DRS, +11 OAA, and +8 Fielding Run Value. He also had 5 errors, ending with a .990 fielding percentage. I am a little surprised Jazz Chisholm Jr. (New York Yankees) wasn’t a finalist, as he had +13 OAA and +8 Fielding Run Value. He also had 9 errors, but that is nearly the same as Meidroth. Meidroth did have more innings, I suppose. Right now, I am going with Michael Massey because he had fewer errors and was positive in every advanced metric. This would also be Michael Massey’s first Gold Glove in his 5-year career. This could also mean that the Royals' middle infielders will both earn Gold Gloves this season. The last time a Royals second baseman won a Gold Glove was in 1987, when the franchise legend won his eighth in his career.

Winner: Michael Massey- Kansas City Royals (would be his first)

Third Base:

  • Caleb Durbin- Boston Red Sox
  • Brooks Lee- Minnesota Twins
  • Nick Loftin- Kansas City Royals

To me, this is pretty easy. Just because I am a Red Sox fan doesn’t mean I'm wrong. Durbin has +13 DRS, +7 OAA, and +6 FRV. He made 11 errors this season, giving him a .972 fielding percentage, not great, but not horrible when you factor in his advanced metrics. When you also consider that Caleb Durbin is 5’6” playing the hot corner, it is all the more impressive. The fact that he has a positive range metric while being shorter than the average male in the US and half a foot shorter than the average MLB 3B is ridiculously impressive. Brooks Lee had +8 DRS, +6 OAA, and +5 Fielding Run Value. All of those are very solid, but just shy of Durbin in every metric. Same kinda goes for Nick Loftin, who had +6 DRS, +6 OAA, and +5 Fielding Run Value. Loftin had 5 errors and a .973 fielding percentage. Brooks Lee had 8 errors for a .966 fielding percentage. I would argue this only supports Durbin’s case. This would be Caleb Durbin’s first Gold Glove in only his second year in the MLB and first on the Red Sox after being on the NL Championship Milwaukee Brewers. The last time a Red Sox third baseman won a Gold Glove was in 1959 when Frank Malzone won it.

Winner: Caleb Durbin- Boston Red Sox (would be his first)

Shortstop:

  • Bobby Witt Jr.- Kansas City Royals
  • Andrés Giménez- Toronto Blue Jays
  • Taylor Walls- Tampa Bay Rays

Andrés Giménez had +2 DRS, +19 OAA, and +16 FRV. He also had 7 errors and a .985 fielding percentage. The reigning champ, Bobby Witt Jr., had +8 DRS, +24 OAA, and +17 Fielding Run Value, with 10 errors for a .981 fielding percentage. Taylor Wells had 21 DRS, -3 OAA, and -2 FRV. To pair, he had 9 errors to obtain a .981 fielding percentage. I think Giménez had an extremely solid year, but it was hard not to give the award to the last two-season champ. I think Bobby Witt will win his third straight Gold Glove. If my predictions are correct, this would be the first time in history that two Royals middle infielders won the award in the same year.

Winner: Bobby Witt Jr.- Kansas City Royals (would be his third)

Left Field:

  • Cody Bellinger- New York Yankees
  • Wyatt Langford- Texas Rangers
  • Chandler Simpson- Chandler Simpson

Cody Bellinger had +21 DRS, +6 OAA, and +8 FRV, with 3 errors. Wyatt Langford had +9 DRS, +5 OAA, +3 FRV, and 1 error. Chandler Simpson had +8 DRS, +8 OAA, +3 FRV, and 3 errors. Right now, it is hard for me to say Bellinger won’t win the Gold Glove this season. This would be Bellinger’s second Gold Glove. He hasn't won one since 2019, when he was on the Dodgers and also won MVP. The last time a Yankee left fielder won the award was in 2016, when Brett Gardner won it.

Winner: Cody Bellinger- New York Yankees (would be his second)

Center Field:

  • Ceddanne Rafaela- Boston Red Sox
  • Evan Carter- Texas Rangers
  • Steven Kwan- Cleveland Guardians

Ceddanne Rafaela has been dominating this award. He probably would’ve won 3 straight if he had played enough innings in 2024. This season, Rafaela has +21 DRS, +16 OAA, and +16 FRV. He also had 2 errors this season. Evan Carter had +6 DRS, +11 OAA, +9 FRV, and 2 errors. Kwan, who has won 4 straight Gold Glove awards, has made a good case, but all of those came at LF, not in center. Kwan had +6 DRS, +6 OAA, and +6 FRV. I don't even think this is a competition. Ceddanne Rafaela will win his second Gold Glove in a row, and unless PCA ends up on an AL team for whatever reason or Kevin Kiermaier resurrects, Rafaela will win it for the next 4-5 seasons straight in a healthy season.

Winner: Ceddanne Rafaela- Boston Red Sox (would be his second)

Right Field:

  • Wilyer Abreu- Boston Red Sox
  • Nathan Lukes- Toronto Blue Jays
  • Cam Smith- Houston Astros

Wilyer Abreu is the reigning winner at the position. He has won two straight. Abreu currently has +28 DRS, +2 OAA, and +5 FRV. Nathan Lukes had +11 DRS, +2 OAA, and +7 FRV. Cam Smith has +4 DRS, +6 OAA, and +3 FRV. Abreu has 9 errors this season, mainly from getting overzealous with his arm and making unnecessary throws. Lukes had 0, and Cam Smith had 6. This is a tough pick between Lukes and Abreu, but I can’t pick Abreu to win his third straight when he led the ENTIRE MLB in Defensive Runs Saved this season, despite a few errors. The next closest was Brice Turang with 23. This would be the second year in a row Abreu and Rafaela would win at both positions.

Winner: Wilyer Abreu- Boston Red Sox (would be his third)

Utility:

  • José Caballero- New York Yankees
  • Zach McKinstry- Detroit Tigers
  • Ezequiel Duran- Texas Rangers

Across all positions he played this season- second base, shortstop, third base, and all outfield positions- José Caballero had a +12 DRS. His best position was shortstop, where he had +13 DRS. His worst position was LF, where he had -3 DRS through 62 innings. Despite having above-average speed only had +1 OAA. Through all positions, he had 0 Fielding Run Value. Zach McKinstry has continued to improve season by season. This is his second time as a Gold Glove finalist. This season, he had a +15 DRS. His best position was easily RF, where he had +13 DRS. His worst position was third base, where he had -1 DRS. McKinstry also had +8 OAA and +11 FRV. Ezequiel “The Solution” Duran has been a staple utility player for the Rangers since 2022. Duran had +5 DRS, +16 OAA, and +13 FRV. This is definitely the hardest prediction yet. To me, Caballero doesn’t really have a chance compared to McKinstry and Duran’s metrics. If I had to pick, I would give the edge to McKinstry only because his metrics are more balanced than Duran’s, whose DRS was a little lacking. Duran was more of a pure utility player. They both played 6 positions this season; however, Duran’s innings distribution is much more balanced than McKinstry’s. This, to me, is a 50/50; I think that Caballero is the easy shoo-out

Winner: Zach McKinstry- Detroit Tigers (would be his first)

Platinum Glove:

Side note: MLB needs to make the Platinum Glove a non-fan-vote award, because I think it could be really cool if they left it up to managers, coaches, and metrics.

If it weren’t a fan vote, I think the only actual candidates in the AL would be Ceddanne Rafaela CF, Wilyer Abreu RF, Bobby Witt Jr. SS, and Cody Bellinger LF. I think Abreu and Bellinger would be eliminated first, leaving it to Witt Jr. and Rafaela. I think I'd give Bobby Witt Jr. the slight edge. If he wins, it would be his second time winning the award. Kansas City fans are also crazy with their voting, so I think Witt Jr. would probably win in the current fan-vote format anyway, although there is a strong case for Rafaela winning on coaches' votes and metrics alone.

Winner: Bobby Witt Jr. (would be his second)

Sources:

Andrés Griñe

Andrés Griñe

Founder of DiamondProspects and Head NFL Scout View Full Bio

I am an Assistant in Player Personnel/Scouting for Washington State Football with over six years of experience scouting NFL prospects and evaluating talent. I previously covered high school baseball as a writer for NMPreps and now run DiamondProspects, where I publish scouting reports, prospect evaluations, and draft analysis. I am currently a junior pursuing a degree in Sports Management and am originally from Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Comments

Subscribers only — join for free to leave a comment.

No comments yet. Be the first to share your take!