Rebuilding the Seattle Mariners: My Blueprint for a 2027 Playoff Return

After the 2026 season, the Seattle Mariners have plenty of room to grow. The team and fans saw a lot they didn't expect. After falling one series win short against the Toronto Blue Jays, they missed their first franchise World Series appearance.

Cal Raleigh, their MVP candidate the previous year, had a major breakout in 2025. He looked like he was gonna be one of the best catchers of this generation. Raleigh has seen some of the biggest regression in production we have ever seen. He dropped from a 6.3 fWAR to a 1.9 fWAR in one season. He was dealing with a right oblique strain since May. He initially played through the injury but eventually hit the IL on May 14th and returned in June. Following the 2026 season, he underwent left shoulder AC joint debridement surgery in October. His wOBA was down, and his wRC+ showed he produced 5% fewer runs than the average MLB hitter, after producing 30% more runs in 2025. He was essentially half the person he was in 2026. I could go on and on about how much he regressed, but it would get redundant. His current DBH grade sits at 25.7. That places him 157th in the Diamond Prospects database.

The Mariners' best hitter was Randy Arozarena. Arozarena had the best full statistical hitting season of his career at age 31. The only problem is he is a free agent. A free agent who is set to make way more than the Mariners can currently afford. I also think that even if the Mariners had the money to bring him back, he wouldn't want to. J

Julio Rodríguez had the worst season of his entire career. The “No Fly Zone” was definitely flying this season. In his career, he has averaged +10 (9.5) OAA. This season he had -3 OAA. It is rare to see a fielding regression like that, especially given that he is still in the top 16% in sprint speed. Aside from missing 7 games in July with a concussion, he missed no time.

Dominic Canzone was a major bright spot at DH. He already was very solid in limited time last season, but in his first full season he lived up to the call. He had a 134 wRC+, .354 wOBA, and a 2.8 fWAR. He is a lineup piece they can definitely build around, as they still have 2 years of control. Cole Young had a slightly above-average hitting season. Ending with a 102 wRC+, .308 wOBA, and 2.3 WAR. His defense was okay, but pretty below average. At his primary position (second base), he had 16 DRS, -5 OAA, and -4 FRV.

J.P. Crawford, a fan-favorite staple of the club for 8 seasons, will be a free agent this season. He was previously on a 5-year deal worth $51 million. He had his most likely worst season in years. His offensive production wasn’t awful, ending with a 105 wRC+, .312 wOBA, and 1.2 fWAR. However, he completely fell off a cliff defensively. His fielding was always average to below average, but he was one of the worst defensive shortstops in the league this season. Among shortstops with at least 700 innings this season, he was ranked 20/22, only ahead of guys like CJ Abrams and Willy Adames. He had -12 DRS (21/22), -13 OAA (20/22), and -10 FRV (20/22). He was essentially unplayable at the position.

Josh Naylor, after they traded for him at the 2025 deadline, was a massive disappointment. In 2025 with the Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners, he had a 128 wRC+, .351 wOBA, and 3.2 WAR. For more basic stats, he ended with 20 HRs, 92 RBIs, a .295 BA, and a .815 OPS. Aside from stealing bases, Naylor had a steep decline that many people predicted, since his exit velocity and hard-hit metrics have been steadily down since 2024. His defense has always been pretty mid, but he, like other players on the team, saw one of his worst defensive seasons. He also posted the lowest HR total of his career, ending with 10. I haven’t even gotten to the worst part yet. Naylor was set to be a free agent in 2026, but the Mariners re-signed him to a 5-year, $92.5 million deal. So, unless he can start barreling up the ball a little more, the Mariners could be looking at a contract that is really hard to get out of.

Taylor Ward was also a big disappointment. The team traded for him in early August in hopes of getting a rental who could propel them into the postseason. Ward for the Orioles had a 117 wRC+, .336 wOBA, 1.9 fWAR, a 17.2% walk rate, and only a 20.4% strikeout rate. On the Mariners, he had a 23 wRC+! That means he was 77% worse at producing runs than the average MLB hitter. He also had a .194 wOBA, -0.8 fWAR, struck out 26.7%, and only walked 11.9%. The Mariners hoped to add a veteran bat with consistency and run creation; instead, they got a massive void that couldn’t be replaced.

The bright spot is the pitching, of course. The team still has a 5-man rotation that a lot of teams are envious of. The front of the rotation is led by Bryan Woo and Logan Gilbert. Woo regressed from a 2.94 ERA last season to 4.01; however, his underlying metrics still look good, and I think he can get back to his normal self in 2027. I think that he needs to increase his arm angle and focus on getting his spin rate back up. His 4-seam fastball, which was easily his best pitch in previous seasons, is starting to look more like a 2-seam. His fastball was so successful in previous seasons because he got over the top of barrels because of that rise in his fastball shape. Now, because it is cutting more arm-side and not rising, it is landing right where barrels are. He saw his highest xBA and xSLG on his fastball this season, with xSLG at .436. If his fastball keeps giving up hard contact, he will continue to struggle to be a frontline starter.

Logan Gilbert has continued to look like a solid starter. Gilbert has always given up hard contact, but this season his barrel rate and hard-hit rate worsened. His swing-and-miss factor has gotten a little worse; however, it is still well above league average. Gilbert had a 3.41 SIERA and 2.9 fWAR. I think he needs to do better at locating his fastball. In 2026, he added 3 pitches: a changeup, curveball, and cutter. I think his changeup was a great addition and limited hard contact. I think he could benefit from throwing his slider more. It was even better than last year, yet he is throwing it less. Overall, Logan Gilbert should remain a very solid piece; however, they will need to decide what to do with him. This is his last arbitration year before hitting free agency in 2028, and I am sure he will be looking for an extension he rightfully deserves.

George Kirby didn’t have the best season. He was pretty much the most average starter possible. He posted a 4.33 ERA through 174.2 IP. Kirby struggled to strike people out and limit hard contact. Strikeouts have always been a bit inconsistent in his career. This was the worst season of his career for generating strikeouts. He had a 20% strikeout rate, which put him in the 32nd percentile. In terms of percentiles, this is the worst xBA he has had in his career. He was in the 16th percentile for a .263 xBA. I think he is throwing too many pitches, which seems to be the team's new strategy. All three top pitchers in their rotation added pitches. He added a cutter that got absolutely mashed for a .516 xSLG. I think he either needs to scrap the pitch entirely or change its location. I think they need to simplify his pitch mix rather than overcomplicate it, which they seem to have done. I think he should increase his fastball usage and decrease his curveball and cutter usage. Right now, he is playing more like a #5 or #4 in the rotation than a #3.

Bryce Miller has struggled with injuries all season. He mainly dealt with a left lat strain that caused him to miss time. Despite the injuries, Miller actually had his best season in terms of metrics. If he could have remained healthy, I think that this rotation would have been much better. His strikeout rate was up, he was getting hitters to chase at an alarming rate, and he was giving up way less hard contact. This was his best statistical season at limiting hard hits. If he can remotely get back to his 2024 and 2026 self for a full season without getting hurt, he could slot in as the #3 starter. Miller, through 118.2 innings, had a 3.87 SIERA and a 0.9 fWAR.

Emerson Hancock is the last starter of this rotation. Hancock’s best trait was his ability to strand runners. He led the rotation with a 79.6% LOB%. Hancock had a 3.84 SIERA and 1.7 WAR. Hancock also had a .308 xwOBA. He also doesn’t walk runners. The only problem is he gives up pretty hard contact. He was in the bottom 75% of the league in Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, and average exit velocity. However, this has easily been the best season of his career, so that is a plus.

As for the bullpen, Eduard Bazardo is getting way too many appearances. After last season, when he had a 2.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, he was terrible this season and tied for the most appearances among relievers on the team. I think he needs to throw a more balanced pitch mix. This season, he relied heavily on his sinker and sweeper. Both pitches were getting pummeled. José A. Ferrer was tied with Bazardo, and he wasn't good either. I think he was getting slightly unlucky, and his defense wasn’t helping, but I question why both of these players were getting so much playing time. Maybe they should have brought back Caleb Ferguson in free agency last season after his breakout season in a contract year. Andrés Muñoz was very solid this season, but he did take a minor step back in certain areas. All of his underlying metrics suggest he was getting unlucky. He had a 2.41 SIERA and yet ended with a 4.24 ERA. Muñoz still has elite strikeout stuff and gets plenty of swing-and-miss. He struggled to avoid hard contact this season, but he did improve his walk problem slightly from previous seasons. I am not really too worried about him, and I think he will be back to his normal self next season. I would personally bring him back on his club option this season and potentially move him at the deadline for a bat. He is set to be a free agent in 2028, and I don’t know if the team is willing to extend him. Gabe Speier, although he wasn’t quite as good this season, was still pretty solid. Ending with an ERA below 3.00. This is also his last season before he hits free agency in 2028. He had a 0.3 WAR and a 3.57 SIERA. In limited appearances, Michael Rucker had good under-the-hood numbers, but overall he wasn’t great. I could see a big improvement in 2027 if the team is willing to stick with him. He had a 3.29 SIERA and a 0.1 WAR. Cooper Criswell was one of my favorite swingman pitchers for the Red Sox the last two seasons, and I really wanted us to keep him. He had a very solid season, posting a 3.32 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. I think he could regress a little bit, as he had a 3.98 SIERA. Alex Hoppe and Seranthony Dominguez are definitely players to note. Dominguez will still be under contract, with a mutual option in 2028. Alex Hoppe was solid in limited appearances, but they traded him to the Orioles in the Taylor Ward deal, which ended up being a flop.

Another major point is that the Mariners fired their manager, Dan Wilson, after they failed to make the postseason following a historic run for the franchise the previous year. The team finished 76-86. The Mariners might keep Wilson in the organization, just not as the manager. The top two candidates look to be Joe Espada, the Houston Astros' former manager, and Jason Kanzler, the Chicago Cubs' director of Player Development and former Astros hitting coach.

The Mariners enter the offseason with an interesting dilemma. Seattle cannot enter this offseason assuming all their star power will return to normal. There are legitimate concerns with various players. However, if the plan is to dismantle the pitching staff, it could create more problems and holes while filling others. The team needs a balanced approach to keep the pitching strong while simultaneously finding offensive talent via trade, free agency, or from within. The team must determine how much financial flexibility it has and identify its strengths and weaknesses.

The team, before signing arbitration players, of which there are a lot currently, sits at ~$91,644,694. That number could rise really quickly with how many players they need to sign to arbitration deals and potentially extensions.

To start, here are the players with guaranteed deals entering the 2027 offseason. Josh Naylor is making the most on the team by AAV (Average Annual Value). He is set to make ~$17.3 million this season. There is nothing you can really do about that. You are stuck with him till 2031. His contract isn’t movable unless he has back-to-back All-Star level seasons in 2027 and 2028. You have to hope he at least somewhat returns to his former self.

Cal Raleigh is the next highest-paid player. He is set to make ~$13.6 millon in 2027. Similar to Josh Naylor, you kind of just have to hope he returns to even half of himself. Maybe he gets his confidence back early in the season, and we could see him have a +3 WAR season.

Again, like Julio Rodríguez, he needs to get back to his former self. His advantage over Naylor and Raleigh is time. He is only 25 at the time of writing this and still has time to grow or, at the bare minimum, get back to what he once was. The bottom line is that he has to. He still has 3 years of guaranteed money until 2030, when his contract becomes a conditional player option. If the Mariners decide to opt out of the club option in 2030, it becomes a player option for Rodríguez, allowing him to opt into the remaining amount of the contract.

Colt Emerson is set to make $3 million in 2027 after the team extended the rookie in late March of 2026. Emerson was their #1 prospect in their farm system. In his first MLB season, he had some growing pains. Emerson was striking out at an alarming rate. He struck out 34.4% of the time. He also had a 67 wRC+ and a .256 wOBA. He ended with a .190 BA. Emerson still has plenty of time to get back to what made him such a good prospect, as he is only 21.

J.P. Crawford is officially off the books, and if I were the Mariners, I would have 0 intention of signing him back.

Seranthony Dominguez has one year left on his contract and has a mutual option in 2028. I still think he could be a solid setup pitcher. His underlying metrics aren’t bad. I expect him to have a similar season to last year, which was still pretty decent. Not worth how much he is getting paid, but that is something they have to accept.

Andrés Muñoz is set to make $9 million this season after the team brought him back on his club option. This is exactly what I would have done. I would take two paths with Muñoz in the season. If the team is really succeeding in the first half of the season, you hold onto him and prepare for a playoff push at the deadline. If the team struggles, you sell at the deadline, which would most likely mean selling Muñoz as a rental. I guarantee plenty of suitors could use a really solid, high-leverage rental.

Victor Robles is set to hit the free agent market for the second time in his career after the Mariners didn’t agree to his club option. I could see them potentially bringing him back on a much cheaper deal. Or they just outright let him walk.

Bryce Miller had a club option this season; however, the Mariners didn’t bring him back as he is set to make less in arbitration than he would’ve in 2027 on the club option.

Hoby Milner hits the free-agent market again after a pretty decent overall season. He was much better with the Cubs than he was with the Mariners. I don’t anticipate the team will bring him back.

Now we get to the players eligible for arbitration. The team doesn’t really have a chance at bringing back Randy Arozarena unless they free up a lot of money, which they don’t have. He will be a free agent and be one of the top bats available on the market.

Taylor Ward will not be coming back after he was a pretty awful rental bat for the Mariners, even though he had a very successful season with the Orioles. I know for a fact I wouldn’t bring him back.

Arbitration Contracts:

Now let’s officially start signing people back and drafting arbitration contracts.

Logan Gilbert has expressed strong interest in returning to the team on a long-term deal. I am sure the fans would like him back, too. Rather than letting him become a free agent in 2028, I plan to sign him to a 5-year extension. I would sign him to a 5-year, $71.1 million contract. With a conditional player option in 2031 and 2032. That would be an AAV of $14.2 million. This is a team-friendly deal he might accept. That would be my opening offer. I guarantee he would most likely decline. I think the Mariners and Gilbert’s team would eventually land on a 5-year, $107 million dollar deal. He would make $16 million in 2027, $20 million in 2028, $21 million in 2029, $24 million in 2030, and $26 million in 2031. In 2030, it would be a player option. The deal would be a $21.4 million AAV. This way, the Mariners gain control of a key starter in the rotation for multiple seasons. It also gives Gilbert and his team plenty of control over his path and what he wants. This contract limits the Mariners' risk of extending a pitcher entering his 30s.

I would next bring back Brendan Donovan for his last year of arbitration. I would not sign him to an extension. I don’t think he offers enough defensive value. He has plenty of offense, but giving up a lot of guaranteed money to someone entering the age-30 season, after only playing 29 games last season, isn't worth an extension. He dealt with injuries this season. He ended with a 131 wRC+, .328 wOBA, and a .736 OPS.

I would also bring back Gabe Speier. Underlying metrics suggest he got a little lucky this past season. However, he was still a decent middle reliever. I would bring him back on a 1-year, $2.36 million arbitration deal.

George Kirby did struggle in 2026. He is still an innings eater. Every team needs a starting pitcher who can eat up innings and still keep the team competitive. I definitely wouldn't extend Kirby, as he hasn’t been nearly good enough in the past two seasons to warrant an extension. I would bring him back on a 1-year, $7.6 million deal.

Luke Raley isn’t expected to make much. He is a good power hitter who can still put up average-to-barely above-average run production. He ended with a 106 wRC+ and a 0.3 fWAR. At a minimum, he will remain a platoon hitter who only hits against righties. I would sign him to a 1-year, $2.4 million deal. He had season-ending flexor surgery in 2026, but he should be ready to start the 2027 season.

I would bring back Patrick Wisdom on a minor league deal, with an invite to Spring Training. However, I would not expect him to make the team. At the MLB level, he's been an average-to-barely above-average run-producing hitter since 2021. I think he can go to Tacoma and mash and occasionally come up if needed. He can play first and third base at a below-average level, but nothing terrible. In 19 games with the Mariners, he posted a -7 wRC+, meaning he was 117% worse at producing runs than the average MLB hitter, which is flat-out awful. I would bring him back on a $150k minor league deal worth $1.1 million if he is promoted to MLB.

Matt Brash is a bullpen arm who struggled with injuries all season. However, in previous healthy seasons, he was really solid. I would bring him back on a 1-year, $1.9 million deal. He is a really solid bullpen arm when he is healthy. Hopefully he stays healthy this season and looks like he did in 2023 and 2025.

Eduard Bazardo was one of the players I highlighted as being pretty awful. I would obviously still bring him back. At his peak, he is a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. I would bring him back on a 1-year, $1.5 million deal. Hopefully, a new manager can help him improve.

Michael Rucker is not a very good reliever. In his best seasons with the Cubs, he had a 3.95 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he was getting unlucky. I would definitely bring him back. Maybe he can finally live up to those underlying metrics. The Mariners could actually get really solid value with Rucker this season. I would bring him back on a 1-year, $810k deal. If he even has a 0.3 WAR season, the Mariners get surplus value. The only problem is his best season was last season, and it was a 0.1 fWAR season.

Bryan Woo is entering his first arbitration, which could open the door to an extension conversation. I think they should ultimately sign him to an arbitration deal and potentially trade him for a high-impact bat. I would tender him a 1-year, $5.3 million deal. I think the team definitely does have to have conversations about a possible extension. I think they could use this year to get a lot of value before extending him to a 4-year deal in 2028.

José A. Ferrer should be tendered back on a 1-year, $1.5 million deal. I think he and Bazardo were pretty much identical, and neither really warranted being paid more than the other.

Dominic Canzone enters his first year of arbitration as a legit DH for the team. I think he could be a potential extension candidate. My guess is he gets a 1-year, $3 million deal.

Cooper Criswell is a player they should bring back on a 1-year, $800k deal. Carlos Vargas was pretty bad for the team last year. I think they'll bring him back on a 1-year, $782k deal. He still can chew up innings, which is needed. At a minimum, he can provide bullpen depth if someone gets hurt.

Bryce Miller will return on a $3.9 million deal, after the Mariners declined his club option.

That is the last remaining player eligible for arbitration. There are three pre-arb players. Those being Cole Young, Kade Anderson, and Lazaro Montes. I think all will be back on $780k deals.

Using a variety of sources, I concluded that the Mariners' CBT Estimated Payroll in 2027 would be $168,974,913. The current estimated salary floor for the new CBA is $171.2 million. That means we are just shy of the current estimated salary floor. Realistically, I think the Mariners would likely spend $25 million in free agency. So, that gives us some spending room to bring in some offensive help and bullpen pieces.

Free Agent Signings:

Tyrone Taylor is the first guy I would go out and sign. He isn’t the flashiest name. I had actually never heard of him before this season. However, Taylor in 241 PA was very solid. In 2026, his box score stats were .279 BA, .325 OBP, .502 SLG, 11 HRs, and 38 RBIs. Taylor is a pull hitter, which is always pretty good in T-Mobile Park. His batted-ball data isn’t the greatest; however, he mashes lefties. He finished the season hitting .318 against them. He isn’t a guy who is gonna walk a lot, but he also isn’t gonna strike out or swing and miss often. His primary position was left field, but he did play his fair share in CF and RF. Taylor also has a great glove and arm. +2 Arm Value, +1 OAA, and +5 DRS. He also did a great job creating runs for both the Mets and Cubs last season. Ending with a 127 wRC+ and hit .277 with runners in scoring position. All that makes for a very solid outfielder that can man RF and do it well. He can push things on the base paths, as he is in the 92nd percentile in sprint speed. If the team wasn’t interested in Taylor, I could see them go after Randal Grichuk or Michael Conforto potentially. I would sign Taylor to a 2-year, $11 million deal ($5.5 million AAV). His sample size isn’t large, and I could see a slight regression; however, if he continues to hover around last year's level, he would be a great addition. Mariners fans can't expect to get Seya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Trent Grisham, and others because they are too expensive, and there are other areas that need addressing. They could go out and get a Ian Happ, but that would basically be the only contributing FA they get. Overall, I think Taylor would be a very solid addition to this team, and his market isn’t gonna be massive.

Right now, Colt Emerson, who is still 21 and putting a lot of pressure on a young shortstop, normally doesn’t work out. There have been cases where they can step in and shine. However, I think the safer route is to sign a backup, rotational shortstop, or someone at the bare minimum who can play the position and still be average. If his batting woes continue, that is not a hole in the lineup that you want to trot out 600 times a year. Brock Rodden, who made his debut last year, was a sub .200 hitter. His fielding metrics were also nothing to write home about. Weston Wilson can provide depth at the position, but he had a -0.5 WAR, a 74 wRC+, and hit just above the Mendoza line for a .201 average. His fielding metrics are also much to be desired, and he didn’t even play shortstop last year. Michael Arroyo, the Mariners' #3 prospect (#41 in the top 100), in 41 plate appearances was actually pretty elite in terms of plate discipline and has very solid bat speed, which is always good to have. However, that was in just 41 plate appearances. A position manned by two prospects who are both 21 can be a recipe for disaster. The current three options I am looking at are Edmundo Sosa (Philadelphia Phillies) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Boston Red Sox). Edmundo Sosa’s primary position last season was left field. However, he played a relatively even share at third base, shortstop, and second base. Sosa is better offensively, but still not great. He had an 89 wRC+, .328 xWOBA, and a 0.8 fWAR. He has a lot of speed on the base paths, being in the 86th percentile at all positions; he had 0 OAA, +3 DRS, and +1 FRV. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa dealt with injuries this season, which caused him to miss much of the season. IKF ended with an 80 wRC+, .297 xWOBA, and a 1.1 fWAR. Out of the two, he offers the most infield versatility and was very good, metric-wise. He had +8 DRS, +9 OAA, and +6 FRV. It comes down to the finances. Both are projected to earn about the same amount. IKF is more likely to earn a 1-year deal, as he is 31. Sosa, not much younger, is more likely to earn a 2-year deal. However, both are expected to earn around $5-$7 million AAV. I think I would lean more toward IKF. I would offer Isaiah Kiner-Falefa a 1-year, $6.0 million deal. I think he would split time between him and Emerson, while also being able to play any infield position if a guy needs a breather.

The next guy I would go out and sign is a backend bullpen arm. The team desperately needed more reliable arms. They need more quality arms, not quantity. The first two bullpen arms I would consider are Alex Vesia (Los Angeles Dodgers) and Steven Okert (Houston Astros). There are a lot of things to consider with these two. Both are lefty arms. The current bullpen is righty-reliant, and they need more weapons to handle splits. Their rotation is also righty-reliant. Both guys have sub .200 averages against both sides of the box. Vesia has the better split numbers out of the two. My pick would be Alex Vesia. Vesia has a funky 69-degree arm angle that he can utilize (Statcast Savant). That is another look that the Mariners can benefit from. Arm-angle diversity is an underrated way for bullpens to beat a lineup. Vesia’s underlying metrics back up his baseball card stats. He posted a 3.57 SIERA, .254 xwOBA, 1.2 fWAR, and a 95th-percentile 31.2% K-rate. He also limits hard contact very well. The only negative is his 13.5% BB rate. However, there is no doubt that he is a dog and is gonna get paid well. His fastball-and-slider combo was elite; he also has a strong changeup, which he threw 14% of the time. I think he would be an elite setup pitcher who could occasionally close when Muñoz is out of the rotation or needs a rest day. I think this is a match made in heaven and would play to the Mariners' biggest strength: their pitching. I would sign Alex Vesia to a 2-year, $18.6 million deal ($9.3 million AAV). His current Spotrac projection is $7.1 million AAV, but I think he'll have plenty of suitors. The Mariners should be willing to shell out at least $21 million ($10.5 million AAV) total; anything more is a little too rich for a non-closer reliever. You will most likely have to overpay for him. The Dodgers and other big-market teams will be interested. Both FanGraphs and Diamond Projections have him regressing in WAR, which is interesting. Another thing to note: he struggled with a right oblique injury in August 2025. If Vesia’s price gets too high, I would pivot to Steven Okert, who should make less. Overall, I think that Vesia would be a great addition to this bullpen.

One more thing the Mariners need is a right-handed bat that can come up and hit. I would argue they need a third baseman or corner outfielder, because they don’t really have one. This team also really struggles against lefties. As a team, they had a .654 OPS against lefties in 2026. Luke Raley in right field had a .392 OPS against lefties in 27 PAs. I'm currently thinking about Austin Hays and Lane Thomas. Both are trusted veterans who bring a lot of experience to this lineup, which they could use since it is younger. I would really like to add a third baseman, because they really need one, but there are 0 quality bats on the market. IKF can play the position when needed, but not super well. Lane Thomas played all three outfield positions, which adds versatility. He historically was really good at stealing bases, although that has slowed with age to 9 last season. I will admit he isn’t the greatest defender; by metrics, he has a negative fielding run value when you combine all three outfield positions, although he does have a positive arm value. He still brings the speed, ranking in the 92nd percentile. His plate discipline is both good and bad: he has an 11.8% walk rate, ranks in the 97th percentile in chase rate, but strikes out 24.9% of the time. His expected numbers aren’t great. He has a .311 xwOBA and .238 xBA. His actual stats were a .224 BA, .701 OPS, 96 wRC+, 11 HRs, 40 RBIs, and a 0.7 fWAR. Lane Thomas hit .262 against lefties and posted a .804 OPS. Austin Hays played only left and right field, mostly in left. In comparison, he is a worse fielder than Lane Thomas and doesn’t have a great arm. Hays is a better lefty killer than Thomas. Austin Hays hit .380 with a .956 OPS against lefties last season. Lane Thomas hits much better with RISP than Hays. A .748 OPS vs. a .517 OPS. Hays had a .280 BA, .705 OPS, 3 HRs, 15 RBIs, 93 wRC+, and a -0.1 fWAR. Hays also has more swings-and-misses and fewer walks than Lane Thomas. Hays will likely earn a 1-year $4.0 million deal, while Lane Thomas will likely get a 1-year $5.5 million deal. For that reason, I would sign Austin Hays. Lane Thomas is the better overall hitter, but to stay within the rough budget, Hays fits and has been mashing lefties for multiple seasons prior to this one. I am not signing an everyday bat; I am signing a bat who can pinch-hit in late-game situations and give Raley and Tyrone Taylor a breather when needed. I would sign him to a 1-year $5.5 million deal. I really wish I could sign a long-term third base option, but none of the players were within our budget or met the team's needs. That essentially sums up this free-agent rebuild for the Seattle Mariners.

We solved multiple issues. This team struggled with left-handed pitching, so we added multiple bats that can handle it. We added versatility with two signings and a high-leverage setup arm who will help in the fall. This will relieve much of the pressure Muñoz had this season. With the current team, the goal was to patch holes and hope the Mariners' top prospects develop. IKF, Tyrone Taylor, and Hays can mentor the younger prospects, be good clubhouse guys, and give them time to develop. The last thing the Mariners should do is throw their prospects into the deep end and hope they swim. The Red Sox have had bad experiences forcing young guys to take that leap too early. You have to hope that Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and Josh Naylor can improve.

Here are the projected 2027 RHP and LHP Lineups:

RHP Lineup

• L Cole Young 2B (.744 OPS, .326 OBP, .418 SLG, .298 RISP)
• L Brendan Donovan 3B (.936 OPS, .430 OBP, .506 SLG, .211 RISP)
• L Lazaro Montes RF (1.035 OPS, .386 OBP, .649 SLG, .267 RISP)
• L Dominic Canzone DH (.808 OPS, .314 OBP, .494 SLG, .321 RISP)
• R Tyrone Taylor LF (.734 OPS, .303 OBP, .431 SLG, .277 RISP)
• R Julio Rodríguez CF (.723 OPS, .311 OBP, .412 SLG, .222 RISP)
• S Cal Raleigh C (.680 OPS, .300 OBP, .380 SLG, .195 RISP)
• L Josh Naylor 1B (.660 OPS, .317 OBP, .343 SLG, .212 RISP)
• L Colt Emerson SS (.571 OPS, .244 OBP, .327 SLG, .125 RISP)

Bench:

• R Isaiah Kiner-Falefa UTIL (.706 OPS, .352 OBP, .354 SLG, .224 RISP)
• R Austin Hays LF/RF (.452 OPS, .212 OBP, .240 SLG, .167 RISP)
• L Luke Raley OF (.757 OPS, .293 OBP, .464 SLG, .197 RISP)
• R Jhonny Pereda C (.641 OPS, .318 OBP, .323 SLG, .118 RISP)

LHP Lineup

• R Austin Hays RF (.956 OPS, .396 OBP, .560 SLG, .167 RISP)
• R Tyrone Taylor LF (.921 OPS, .348 OBP, .573 SLG, .277 RISP)
• L Dominic Canzone DH (.847 OPS, .393 OBP, .454 SLG, .321 RISP)
• R Jhonny Pereda C (.993 OPS, .457 OBP, .536 SLG, .118 RISP)
• R Julio Rodríguez CF (.676 OPS, .300 OBP, .376 SLG, .222 RISP)
• L Josh Naylor 1B (.682 OPS, .318 OBP, .364 SLG, .212 RISP)
• L Brendan Donovan 3B (.479 OPS, .250 OBP, .229 SLG, .211 RISP)
• L Cole Young 2B (.596 OPS, .286 OBP, .310 SLG, .298 RISP)
• L Colt Emerson SS (.601 OPS, .250 OBP, .351 SLG, .125 RISP)

LHP Bench:

• R Isaiah Kiner-Falefa UTIL (.463 OPS, .255 OBP, .208 SLG, .224 RISP)
• L Lazaro Montes RF (.134 OPS, .067 OBP, .067 SLG, .267 RISP)
• L Luke Raley OF (.392 OPS, .192 OBP, .200 SLG, .197 RISP)
• S Cal Raleigh C (.636 OPS, .289 OBP, .347 SLG, .195 RISP)

Projected 2027 Starting Rotation:

• RHP Logan Gilbert
• RHP Bryan Woo
• RHP Bryce Miller
• RHP George Kirby
• RHP Emerson Hancock

Projected 2027 Bullpen:

• CLOSER: RHP Andrés Muñoz
• SETUP: LHP Alex Vesia
• SETUP: RHP Seranthony Domínguez
• MRP (High Leverage): RHP Matt Brash
• MRP: LHP Gabe Speier
• MRP: LHP José A. Ferrer
• MRP: RHP Eduard Bazardo
• LRP: RHP Cooper Criswell

Reasoning for Decisions: The lineups look completely different, and I think that is how the season should start. Until your core three batters can perform as they should, they shouldn’t be rewarded for what they did 2 years ago; they should be punished for what they did last year. Unless those guys are mashing in Spring Training, there is no reason for them to be high in the batting order. The stats don’t lie; they weren't good last year. The stats you see are their split numbers. I still think those three can return to form, but roll with the guys who did it for you last season and the free-agent signings you expect to perform. I think they should trust their younger players. Cole Young and Lazaro Montes are high in the order. If they struggle, you have the veterans who can get it done defensively, and you now have enough depth to play around the lineup when guys aren’t performing as they should. Montes absolutely lit up righties in his limited plate appearances last season. He should be platooned with Austin Hays. If Montes struggles out of the gate, you still have Luke Raley, who can be a +750 OPS hitter against righties. This could upset Seattle fans, but I have Cal Raleigh being platooned with Jhonny Pereda. In 35 left-handed plate appearances, Pereda was easily better than Raleigh. Similar to Montes, if he struggles against lefties and that small sample size proves to be false, then you simply keep Raleigh as your everyday catcher. I still don't think Raleigh should be pinch-hit for. If Raleigh comes up in the 7th inning to face a lefty reliever, leave him in. With the additions of Tyrone Taylor, Austin Hays, Alex Vesia, and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, along with retaining the talent in the rotation, this should be a team that can make the wild card. They might end up being a 6 seed, but if they can end up winning 84 games, which I believe they can, they will make the playoffs most likely. I think the Mariners should experiment with the lineup early on and in Spring Training. See what works and see what doesn’t. What you can’t do is continue to trot out the same core-3 and hope they somehow figure it out. Make them prove how much they are being paid. Make them work back into the top parts of the lineup. Until they do that, and unless the experimental lineup I am suggesting struggles, don’t change things up. I am relying on small sample numbers. In a 162-game season, you have time to try things out.

Conclusion: This offseason shouldn't be about tearing down the entire roster. It's about giving this team a legitimate shot at making a run, while preserving the franchise's future. The Mariners still boast an enviable starting 5, a high-leverage bullpen unit, and a crop of promising young talent that could make real strides. Bringing in guys like Tyrone Taylor, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Alex Vesia, and Austin Hays isn't going to magically turn Seattle into immediate World Series favorites. What it does do is plug some massive holes while staying well within our financial flexibility. The team will need to experiment with the batting order early on and remain adaptable as the year progresses.

When it comes down to it, any real success rests on Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and Josh Naylor bouncing back to their former selves, alongside solid steps forward from guys like Colt Emerson, Cole Young, and Lazaro Montes. If the core bats get back on track and the rotation stays out of the trainer's room, I definitely think this club can secure an AL Wild Card berth in 2027.

I have them finishing at 84–78, though they could easily top that win total if the bats catch fire earlier than anticipated.