Sweet Sixteen Predictions Using Analyltics

Introduction

Currently, my bracket is in the 74th percentile, which ranks it roughly at 7 million out of all the submissions. All my Final Four teams remain alive, those teams being #1 Duke, #3 Illinois, #1 Arizona, and #1 Michigan. My Elite 8 was doing well until the last window of games. My Elite 8 was #1 Duke, #7 UCLA, #1 Arizona, #2 Purdue, #1 Florida, #3 Illinois, #1 Michigan, and lastly #2 Iowa St. Now that the Sweet Sixteen is set, I figured we should have some fun. We will make these predictions the same way I did for my main bracket. These head-to-head matchup scores were done using offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and lastly possessions. I get a variety of different head-to-head matchups. For one matchup, I will use that team's offensive and defensive efficiencies over the entire season, along with the national average possessions (~70.6). The next is done using those same whole-season efficiencies, but instead of using the national average possessions, I use that team's average possessions over the entire season. For example, Alabama averages a whopping 77.2 possessions per game, and Iowa is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum; they average 64.6 possessions per game because of how slow they play. The next analysis I do is using Bart Torvik's last 10 games efficiencies and the average for both all of D1 at 70.6 and for that teams' Ex: Alabama’s 77.2. Now let’s get to the actual matchups!

Note: Some of these picks I don’t agree on. This is just what the analytics say.

#1 Duke vs #5 St. John’s

• Winner: #1 Duke

• Line: Duke -6.5

• Duke is coming in a little cold. Although they have won their two games, both games were very close for at least 20 minutes of game time. Hopefully, that second half performance against TCU will help propel them into a tough matchup. St. John’s is playing very well as of late. Their defense the last 10 games is the best in the country in defensive efficiency. However, they are ranked 50th in the last 10 games in offensive efficiency. Duke is ranked top 10 in both those categories. The matchup to look out for is between freshman Cameron Boozer and the Johnnies senior big man Zuby Ejiofor. Using analytics the Blue Devils move on with an average win differential between all 4 simulated head to head matchups was -4.5 in favor of Duke.

#2 UConn vs #3 Michigan St

• Winner: #3 Michigan St

• Line: UConn -1.5

• UConn and Michigan St have been living up to their seed. Most people in this region had upsets coming from a variety of teams like UCLA, USF, and Louisville, however the region ended up being more chalk than expected. Jeremy Fears Jr. and Alex Karaban is the players to look out for. Michigan St has looked unstoppable this tournament and if I were to pick someone I would pick Michigan St based on eye test alone. The analytics would agree with that decision as the average win differential is 2 in favor of the Tom Izzo and the Spartans.

#1 Arizona vs #4 Arkansas

• Winner: #1 Arizona

• Line: -7.5 Arizona

• This is the matchup a lot of people had with the exception of people like me who had the Badgers being in this positon however, they were upset by High Point the first game of the tournament in a 12 over 5 upset. Arizona should win this game, but if Arkansas’s Darius Acuff Jr. and Joe Calipari can work their magic Arkansas could have a chance. The analytics favor the Bearcats with an average win differential between the simulated matchups of 10 points.

#2 Purdue vs #11 Texas

• Winner: #2 Purdue

• Line: -8.5 Purdue

• The Boilermakers entering the tournament with the hottest offense in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. Texas was able to win their play-in matchup and upset #6 BYU and top NBA prospect AJ Dybantsa. I did successfully predict Texas winning that game, but I did not predict Gonzaga losing to them as well. Texas’ offense looks great so far and their defense is picking up. This matchup does scare me, but I think the experience of Braden Smith, Loyer, and Kaufman-Renn with prevail over the “cinderella” Longhorns (if you can even call Texas that). The analytics favor my decision as Purdue advances with an average win differential of 7.

#4 Nebraska vs #9 Iowa

• Winner: #9 Iowa

• Line: -1.5 Nebraska

• This is quite the surprising matchup for most and definitely for me. I had Florida and Vanderbilt in the Sweet Sixteen, but much to my shock Iowa has exploded brackets and Nebraskaball moves on. These teams met twice during the season and both teams won one at home. This matchup has became quite a tossup despite the fact that Nebraska is 5 seeds higher. The analytics favor #9 Iowa with an average win differential of 4 points. Iowa’s historic season and run continues

#2 Houston vs #3 Illinois

• Winner: #2 Houston

• Line: -2.5 Houston

• These teams are polar opposites and I truly believe anyone can win this game. Illinois is an incredible offensive powerhouse and Houston is a defensive powerhouse. I have gona back and forth with this pick, but I will stick with my original pick and role with the Illini. The analytics favor the Cougars, Flemmings, and Sharp to move on to the Elite 8. The average win differential in the four matchups was 1 point.

#2 Iowa St vs #6 Tennessee

• Winner: #2 Iowa St
• Line: -3.5 Iowa St

Iowa St is an incredible defensive team. Their offense can become a little stagnant, but they are primed for a Final Four run. #6 Tennessee is playing very well as of late, but I think Iowa St should win this game and I am fairly confident they will. The analytics favor Iowa St by an average differential of 3 points.

#1 Michigan vs #4 Alabama

• Winner: #1 Michigan

• Line: -8.5 Michigan

• This was my predicted matchup. Darius Philon Jr. and Lendeborg have just been too much for teams to handle. Despite Alabama coming off a historic 3-point shooting night and looking unstoppable offensively, I have to trust Michigan’s frontcourt to move on here. The analytics favor the Wolverines advancing by an average of 8 points.

The winners:

• #1 Duke, #1 Arizona, #1 Michigan, #2 Iowa St, #2 Purdue, #2 Houston #3 Michigan St, and #9 Iowa.

Stay tuned for my Elite 8 predictions, NIT Semifinal predictions, as well as more QB scouting reports dropping.